[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 10 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Mar 11 10:30:17 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels over the last
24 hours. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next 3 UT days (11-13 Mar) with a slight chance for C-class
flares. The solar wind speeds declined over the last 24 hours
but remained above nominal levels. They started at around 500
km/s, currently around 410 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 1-6.5
nT and is currently around 2 nT. The Bz component varied between
-5.5 nT and +3 nT. It had a period of sustained southward direction
between 10/0515 UT and 10/1205 UT. Solar wind speeds are expected
to continue to decline during 11-13 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Active
with isolated Minor Storms
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 22244111
Cocos Island 6 11233110
Darwin 10 22244111
Townsville 13 22254211
Learmonth 8 22234110
Alice Springs 10 12244211
Norfolk Island 11 1225301-
Culgoora 11 12253211
Gingin 11 22244211
Canberra 8 22243100
Launceston 15 23354201
Hobart 14 13354200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
Macquarie Island 30 23475200
Casey 14 34433211
Mawson 20 25343205
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 4323 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity across the Australian region
on UT day 10 Mar was at Quiet to Active levels with isolated
Minor Storm periods. Active to Storm periods were observed in
the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to
be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 11 Mar with the chance of
isolated Active periods and Quiet to Unsettled on 12-13 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are expected in high latitude regions due to the
recent unsettled geomagnetic conditions associated with elevated
solar wind speeds.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across the Southern Australian region were near
predicted monthly values for the UT day 10 Mar. MUFs in the Northern
Australian region were enhanced while the Antarctic region experienced
minor depressions over the UT day. The Cocos Island region experienced
minor depressions over the UT day while the Niue Island region
experienced enhanced MUFs during the local day and minor depressions
during the local night. Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs are
expected over the Australian region over the next UT day (11
Mar). Higher latitudes may still experience minor to moderate
depressions and degradations in HF conditions due to the recent
unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 220000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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