[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 January 17 issued 2348 UT on 28 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 29 10:48:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 77/16 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
2627 on the west limb was the source of the only notable event
being a C2.8 flare at 2109UT.No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed remained
elevated over the last 24 hours, starting at 525km/s at 00UT,
rising to 569km/s at 0718UT and is currently ~475km/s at the
time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected to decline
over the next 24 hours. The north-south component of the IMF
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-4nT for the first half of the UT day
and +/-2nT for the latter half. Solar activity is expected to
be Very Low to Low for the next 3 days with just the chance of
C-class flares. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 28/0855UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22211122
Cocos Island 4 22111112
Darwin 5 22211122
Townsville 5 22211122
Alice Springs 5 22211122
Norfolk Island 5 22211122
Gingin 5 22211122
Camden 5 22211122
Canberra 3 22100112
Launceston 6 22212222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 22111011
Casey 24 36533113
Mawson 21 34323226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 16 3442 4311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jan 17 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet for the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected
for the next 2 days with possible Unsettled periods. Chance of
Active periods on 31Jan due to the onset of a high speed solar
wind stream from a southern hemisphere located negative polarity
recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
30 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
31 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's and isolated enhancements observed for
low to mid latitudes for 28 January. Poor ionospheric support
for high latitudes. Degraded HF conditions are expected over
the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
31 Jan -10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUF observed for most regions over the last
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days
with depressed MUFs of ~20% for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ
regions and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.
Further reduced ionospheric support is expected on 31Jan due
to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 585 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 310000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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