[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 January 17 issued 2349 UT on 27 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 28 10:49:27 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery.
The solar wind speed remained elevated under the influence of
a high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent equatorial
located coronal hole. Solar wind speed climbed from 550km/s at
00UT to be 697km/s at ~06UT before gradually declining to be
540km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +/-10nT between 00UT and 05UT
after which BTotal reduced in magnitude and Bz has ranged between
0nT and 3nT since 14UT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated for the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to
be Very Low to Low for the next 3 days with just the chance of
C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 33333312
Cocos Island 11 33323311
Darwin 11 33333212
Townsville 11 33333212
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 12 33333312
Norfolk Island 10 33332211
Gingin 17 43343422
Camden 13 34333212
Canberra 9 33332201
Launceston 18 34444312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
Macquarie Island 27 33465411
Casey 28 46534322
Mawson 41 56534426
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 77 (Active)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 0012 4453
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
29 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 26 January and
is current for 27-28 Jan. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to
Unsettled for the Australian region over the last 24 hours due
to recurrent coronal hole effects and the preceding CIR. Unsettled
conditions expected for 28Jan with possible Active periods. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions expected 29Jan and 30Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
29 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
30 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Occasional MUF depressions and enhancements observed
for low to mid latitudes for 27 January. Over the next 3 days,
degraded HF conditions are expected due to increased geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Jan 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 26 January
and is current for 27-28 Jan. Variable ionospheric support observed
over the last 24 hours for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions
with both notable depressions and enhancements. MUFs near predicted
monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Depressed MUF's of
~~20% expected for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions for
28Jan-30Jan along with disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 64900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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