[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Tue Jan 17 10:30:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected
to be very low for the next 3 days, with a chance of C-class
flares. The solar wind speed varied between 295-330 km/s, currently
around 320 km/s. The IMF total strength varied between 3-6 nT,
currently 4 nT. The Bz component varied between -3 to 5 nT. Solar
wind speed is expected to increase late 18-Jan due to coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 2 12100010
Darwin 2 11100012
Townsville 2 11100111
Alice Springs 2 11100002
Gingin 2 21100021
Camden 2 -2100011
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 3 12210011
Hobart 1 11100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 9 24420012
Mawson 5 23211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1011 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 5 Quiet
18 Jan 18 Quiet, then minor storm
19 Jan 20 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 January and
is current for 18-19 Jan. Magnetic conditions were quiet across
the Australian region on 16-Jan. Conditions are expected to remain
quiet until late on 18-Jan when coronal hole effects are likely
to bring active conditions with periods of minor storms.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Jan Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
18 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
19 Jan -10 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On 16-Jan, daytime MUFs were mildly to moderately depressed
across Australia. Nightime MUFs were moderately to severely depressed
across Australia, except in the Southern Australian Region where
nightime MUFs were near predicted monthly values. Widespread
sporadic-E was observed. Similar conditions are likely for the
next 2 days, 17-Jan and 18-Jan. Depressions are expected to increase
on 19-Jan due to increased geomagnetic activity which is forecast
to start late 18-Jan. The current HF Communications Warning will
be extended for 17-19 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 18300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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