[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Feb 27 10:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 26 February. No earthward directed CME was observed during
this period. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decline from
~~480 km/s to ~380 km/s during the UT day today. The IMF Bt stayed
from 3 to 4 nT during most parts of the UT day, whereas IMF Bz
varied mostly between +/-2 nT during the day. A negative polarity
recurrent coronal hole may start strengthening the solar wind
stream from 28 February for a few days. Very low levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next 3 days (27 February to
01 March) with a slight chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 11101011
Learmonth 1 11101000
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Norfolk Island 0 00000001
Culgoora 1 21001000
Gingin 0 11000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11110001
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 8 34222001
Mawson 5 33211000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2321 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 5 Quiet
28 Feb 12 Quiet to active
01 Mar 20 Mostly unsettled to active, minor storm periods
possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 26 February. Nearly similar levels
of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 27 February and first
half of 28 February. Activity is then expected to gradually increase
to unsettled and active levels late on 28 February due to the
effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a negative polarity
recurrent coronal hole. This coronal hole effect may keep the
geomagnetic activity enhanced to unsettled to active levels with
the possibility of some minor storm periods on 1 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
28 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
UT day 26 February. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
on 27 and early parts of 28 February. Minor to mild MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions are expected late on 28 February.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
are likely on 01 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 18 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
01 Mar 8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian regions during UT day 26 February. Nearly similar
HF conditions may be expected in Aus/NZ regions on 27 and early
parts of 28 February. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions are expected late on 28 February. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are likely
on 01 March in this region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 227000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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