[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 25 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 26 10:30:23 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Feb             27 Feb             28 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT 
day 25 February. No earthward directed CME was observed during 
this period. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decline from 
~~580 km/s to ~490 km/s during the UT day today. The IMF Bt stayed 
close to 4 nT throughout the UT day, whereas IMF Bz varied mostly 
between +/-3 nT during the day. Very low levels of solar activity 
may be expected for the next 3 days (26-28 February) with a slight 
chance of C-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21211001
      Cocos Island         2   21111001
      Darwin               3   21211001
      Townsville           4   12221011
      Learmonth            4   22221001
      Alice Springs        3   21221001
      Norfolk Island       2   11101012
      Culgoora             3   111-----
      Gingin               3   21221001
      Canberra             1   -1110001
      Launceston           4   22221011
      Hobart               2   11211001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     2   22110000
      Casey               15   45331112
      Mawson              25   54442235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17   4434 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Feb     6    Quiet
27 Feb     5    Quiet
28 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 25 February. Nearly similar levels 
of geomagnetic activity may be expected over the following three 
days (26 to 28 February).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during 
UT day 25 February with minor MUF depressions observed in the 
high latitude regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected 
for the next three days (26 to 28 February).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Feb    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      0
Feb      18
Mar      16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb    22    Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb    22    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across 
the Australian regions during UT day 25 February with minor MUF 
depressions observed in the southern regions. Mostly normal HF 
conditions may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next 
three days (26 to 28 February).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 596 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:   290000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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