[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Tue Feb 14 10:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 13 February with no notable flares. Very low levels of
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days (14-16 February)
with a slight chance of C-class flares. There are currently two
numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar disk. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery on UT
day 13 February. The solar wind speeds were near the nominal
levels of between 325 km/s and 350 km/s throughout the UT day.
The IMF Bt fluctuated between 2 nT and 7 nT during the UT day.
The Bz component varied between -4 nT and +3 nT. The outlook
for today 14 February is for the solar winds to continue to remain
near the nominal levels. However from 15 February, the solar
winds are expected to enhance in response to a recurrent positive
polarity equatorial coronal hole soon approaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk. During the previous rotation, the
daily mean solar wind speed associated with this coronal hole
were in excess of 500 km/s for three successive days. Similar
effects of the coronal hole are expected during this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11110212
Cocos Island 5 11110322
Darwin 3 10110212
Townsville 4 11120212
Learmonth 5 20110322
Alice Springs 3 21010212
Norfolk Island 2 11010102
Gingin 5 21011321
Camden 4 21111212
Canberra 1 10010111
Launceston 5 11121222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 11001111
Casey 10 33231322
Mawson 14 53212233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Feb 20 Active
16 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic activity were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region on UT day 13 February. The outlook for
today 14 February is for the geomagnetic conditions to remain
initially at quiet levels and by the end of the UT day could
reach unsettled levels in response to the anticipated arrival
of co-rotating interaction region associated with the coronal
hole. On UT day 15 February, geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly between unsettled and active levels due to high
speed solar wind streams expected to emanate from the coronal
hole. There is some chance that auroras may be visible on the
local night of 15 February in Tasmania and possibly from the
coastline of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels
across all regions on UT day 13 February. Sightly improved MUF
conditions are expected for today, 14 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels with
sporadic minor depressions scattered across the Australian regions.
The two day outlook (14-15 February) is for a slightly improved
MUF conditions as the approaching coronal hole effects are expected
to initially further enhance ionisation levels on the first day
of storming. This is usually followed by storm-associated depressions
on the subsequent days, possibly beginning from 16 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 19300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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