[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 12 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Feb 13 10:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels during the
UT day, 12 February. Very Low solar activity is expected for
the next three days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No
Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery up to 12/1800UT.
The solar wind speed varied between 330-360 km/s over the last
24 hours and is expected to remain in this range for the next
24 hours. The IMF Bt varied between 1-5 nT during the same period.
North-south (Bz) component varied between +2/-3 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11100220
Cocos Island 3 30000210
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 4 11111221
Learmonth 2 01100220
Alice Springs 2 10100220
Norfolk Island 1 10000110
Gingin 3 11110221
Camden 4 1111122-
Canberra 1 00100210
Launceston 4 11211221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 00100110
Casey 8 23321221
Mawson 9 22311233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2201 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 4 Quiet
14 Feb 6 Quiet
15 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet in the Australian region
on 12 February. Expect Quiet conditions for the next two days.
Midway through UT day, 15 February, expect an increase in activity
to Unsettled to Active levels due to a coronal hole becoming
geoeffective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted values with periods of minor
to moderate depressions during the UT day, 12 February. Periods
of sporadic E were observed in the Australian region over the
last 24 hours. Expect similar conditions to prevail over the
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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