[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 09 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Feb 10 10:30:27 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Low levels during the UT day
09 February with 3 C-class flares observed from AR 2635(N13E12).
The largest flare was a C1.3 class flare peaking at 09/0326UT.
Very Low to Low solar activity is expected for the next three
days. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery
up to 09/1548UT. The solar wind speed varied between 410-460
km/s over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain in this
range or possibly lower. The IMF Bt varied between 4-9 nT during
this same period. North-south (Bz) component varied between +/-7nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 21121222
Cocos Island 5 21211221
Darwin 5 21121221
Townsville 6 21222222
Learmonth 5 21121222
Alice Springs 4 10121221
Norfolk Island 4 10121222
Gingin 5 21121222
Camden 6 22221222
Canberra 2 10111111
Launceston 6 22221222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 11110111
Casey 22 45531233
Mawson 15 43222225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1001 1202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 4 Quiet
11 Feb 4 Quiet
12 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet in the Australian region
on 09 February. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
11 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
12 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted values during the UT day,
09 February. Periods of sporadic E observed in the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Expect mostly near predicted MUFs
for the next three days with possible periods of Minor depressions
and periods of sporadic E to continue in the Australian region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list