[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 February 17 issued 0004 UT on 09 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 9 11:04:43 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT CORRECTION
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 72/8 73/9
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels during the
UT day 08 February. Very Low solar activity is expected for the
next three days. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
imagery up to 08/2136UT. The solar wind speed decreased over
the last 24 hours, ranging from 500 to 430 km/s. The IMF Bt varied
between 4-7 nT over the UT day. North-south (Bz) component varied
between +5/-4 nT. The Solar wind speed is expected to continue
to decline to nominal levels as effects of the coronal hole subside.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 11123212
Cocos Island 3 11112210
Darwin 4 11112212
Townsville 6 11222222
Learmonth 7 11223213
Alice Springs 5 01123211
Norfolk Island 4 01112221
Gingin 7 11123213
Camden 8 13223222
Canberra 3 01112211
Launceston 8 11223322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 00123311
Casey 15 34432223
Mawson 10 42222213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2111 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 5 Quiet
10 Feb 4 Quiet
11 Feb 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian
region on 08 February. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Periods of minor depressions and sporadic E observed
in the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions
are likely for the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 247000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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