[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 12 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 13 10:30:31 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 12 December,
with no flares. There is currently one numbered solar regions
on the visible disk, region 2691 (S04E17) and it remains relatively
quiet and stable. Very low levels of solar flare activity is
expected for the next three days (13- 15 Dec), with a weak chance
of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in
the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 12 Dec. The solar wind
speed during UT day 12 December was at moderately elevated levels
and ranged between 420 km/s to 520 km/s. The solar wind speed
at the time of writing was 485 km/s. These moderately enhanced
solar wind speeds are in response to a positive polarity recurrent
coronal hole (northern hemisphere). During the UT day 12 December,
the IMF Bt fluctuated between 5 nT and 8 nT. The Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and +5 nT. The two day outlook
(13-14 Dec) for the solar wind speed to remain near these moderately
enhanced levels. These forecasted moderately elevated solar winds
are due to the combine effects of the current northern hemisphere
coronal hole, which is now on a waning trend, and approaching
small low latitude southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22221232
Cocos Island 5 11121131
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 8 22231232
Learmonth 9 22221242
Alice Springs 7 22221232
Norfolk Island 7 22221232
Gingin 10 32221242
Camden 8 22231132
Canberra 4 11221121
Launceston 10 22332232
Hobart 10 22332232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
Macquarie Island 13 12343242
Casey 18 35432233
Mawson 38 44532374
Davis 17 33532233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 0323 4211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 12 Unsettled
14 Dec 12 Unsettled
15 Dec 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 12 December.
Active to minor storm conditions were observed over the Australian
Antarctic region. The disturbed magnetic conditions are in response
to the moderately elevated solar winds emanating from the positive
polarity coronal hole. For 13 December, the magnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels and at
times reaching active levels. These forecasted disturbed conditions
are because of the moderately high speed streams associated with
the current northern hemisphere coronal hole and approaching
small low latitude southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Sporadic E blanketing were observed at several low and
mid latitude southern hemisphere locations on 12 December. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
in high and mid latitude southern hemisphere regions are possible
from 13 to 14 December in response to the forecasted unsettled
magnetic conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Dec -16 Near predicted monthly values
15 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 12 December
and is current for 13-14 Dec. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 12 December. Sporadic
E blanketing were observed at several low and mid latitude locations.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
are possible in the region from 13 to 14 December. These depression
are the aftermath of disturbed conditions associated with the
coronal hole
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 13.5 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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