[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 11 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 12 10:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low level on UT day 11 December,
with only one B-class solar flare (B6.2). There are currently
2 numbered solar regions on the visible disk, region 2690 (N06W81)
and region 2691 (S04E30) and both remain relatively quiet and
stable. Very low solar flare activity is expected for the next
three days (12- 14 Dec), with a weak chance of C-class flares.
No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery on UT day 11 Dec. The solar wind speed during UT day
11 December increased from 340 km/s at the beginning of the UT
day and peaked to ~500 km/s at 11/1400 UT. The solar wind speed
at the time of writing was 442 km/s. These moderate enhancements
in solar wind speeds are in response to a positive polarity recurrent
coronal hole (northern hemisphere) now taking geoeffective position
on the solar disk. During the UT day 11 December, the IMF Bt
fluctuated between 5 nT and 11 nT. Similarly, the Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -7 nT and +11 nT. The two day outlook
(12-13 Dec) for the solar wind speed to remain near these moderately
enhanced levels as the effects of the current coronal hole persists.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 12233221
Cocos Island 8 01223331
Darwin 8 12233221
Townsville 9 12333222
Learmonth 10 12333321
Alice Springs 7 11233221
Norfolk Island 7 12223222
Gingin 10 11333331
Camden 8 12233221
Canberra 5 11222211
Launceston 11 22333322
Hobart 10 22333321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
Macquarie Island 11 01245210
Casey 18 34433333
Mawson 14 33334322
Davis 19 33453332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0110 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 12 Unsettled
13 Dec 12 Unsettled
14 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 11 December.
The disturbed magnetic conditions are in response to the moderately
elevated solar winds emanating from the positive polarity coronal
hole. For 12 December, the magnetic activity is expected to be
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels because the high speed streams
from the coronal hole persist.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Sporadic E blanketing were observed at several low and
mid latitude southern hemisphere locations on 11 December. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
in high latitude regions are possible from 12 to 14 December
in response to the forecasted unsettled magnetic conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available .
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed across Aus/NZ
regions today (UT day 11 December). Sporadic E blanketing were
observed at several low and mid latitude locations. Minor to
moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are
possible in the region from 12 to 14 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 14600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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