[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 August 17 issued 2345 UT on 30 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 31 09:45:15 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 89/33 91/36 91/36
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
2674(N15E66) continues to produced impulsive C-class and B-class
X-ray flares. The largest flare was a C5.2 peaking at 1845UT.
Expect Low solar activity for the next three days, though there
is a slight chance for an M-class X-ray flare. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery up to 30/1600UT.
Observations from ACE showed that the solar wind stream remained
between 410 km/s and 340 km/s during the last 24 hours. Btotal
ranged between 2 to 6 nT. During this period Bz ranged between
+/-5 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain near nominal levels
until midway through the UT day when it is expected to gradually
over several hours increase to near 700 km/s due to recurrent
a coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 12100011
Learmonth 2 12100100
Alice Springs 1 11100000
Norfolk Island 1 -2100000
Culgoora 1 11100000
Gingin 1 11100010
Camden 1 11200000
Canberra 1 11100000
Launceston 2 12210100
Hobart 2 12200000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Casey 6 34210010
Mawson 5 23210121
Davis 6 13221121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 1221 2253
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 20 Active
01 Sep 20 Active
02 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 29 August and
is current for 31 Aug to 1 Sep. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet
for the last 24 hours. Expect an increase from Quiet to Unsettled
to Active conditions with possible isolated cases of Minor Storm
conditions at higher latitudes midway through the UT day, 31
August, due to the an increase in the solar wind speed induced
by a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible degraded HF communication at high latitudes
on 31 August to 01 September due to Minor geomagnetic storming.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Australian
ionosonde stations showed isolated cases of sporadic E in the
Australian region. Expect similar conditions to prevail over
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 55100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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