[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 April 17 issued 2352 UT on 22 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 23 09:52:47 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 22 April,
with only B-class flares. The strongest was B9.6 flare occurring
at 22/0034 from Region 2651. Very low levels of solar activity
is expected for the next 3 days (23-25 April) with chance of
C-class flares and very weak chance of M-class flares. No earthward
directed CME was observed during the last 24 hours. The solar
wind speed was at very high levels, ranging from 630 km/s to
750 km/s, throughout the UT day. This is thought to be the combined
effect of the 18 April CME and a high speed streams from recurrent,negative
polarity coronal hole now taking geoeffective location on the
solar disk. The IMF Bt fluctuated between 5 nT and 10 nT during
the UT day. The Bz component varied between -8 nT and +8 nT,
with prolonged periods of southward Bz. The two day outlook (23-24
April) is for the solar winds to further enhance in response
to the persisting effects of the coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Unsettled to
Major Storm
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 30 33464533
Cocos Island 20 33343533
Darwin 22 43353433
Learmonth 34 43465533
Alice Springs 26 43354533
Norfolk Island 23 33463323
Culgoora 26 33463433
Gingin 35 32365634
Camden 27 33464433
Canberra 24 32463423
Launceston 46 34575534
Hobart 40 33475533
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
Macquarie Island 84 35787543
Casey 40 44447353
Mawson 68 46655567
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 45 (Unsettled)
Alice Springs 17 (Quiet)
Gingin 166 (Severe storm)
Canberra 152 (Severe storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 18 1110 3454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 45 Minor Storm
24 Apr 35 Active to Minor Storm
25 Apr 25 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 21 April and
is current for 22-24 Apr. Magnetic conditions were from unsettled
and major storm levels across the Australian region during the
UT day, 22 April. These disturbed magnetic conditions are thought
to be the combined effect of the 18 April CME and high speed
streams from a recurrent,negative polarity coronal. Mostly active
to minor storm conditions and at times reaching major storm levels
are expected for the UT days 23-24 April in response to the coronal
hole effects
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Fair Fair-poor Poor
24 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
25 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly higher than the monthly predicted
values on UT day 22 April. MUFs levels are expected to drop today,
23 April, in response to yesterday's major storm conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: For the UT day, 22 April, MUFs over the Australian region
were mostly at enhanced levels compared to the monthly predicted
value. MUF enhancements are typical on Day 1 of storming during
this time of the year. The outlook for the next two days (23
and 24 April) is for MUF levels to drop, but will still remain
near monthly predicted levels. The degradations of MUFs are due
to the storm induced ionospheric depression, which is expected
to spread equatorwards from the polar regions over the next two
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 533 km/sec Density: 11.5 p/cc Temp: 394000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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