[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 21 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Apr 22 09:30:16 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 21 April.
A CME was observed in the available LASCO imagery at 20/2212
UT. The CME seems to be related to a disappearing solar filament
observed in the northeast quadrant at 20/2026 UT and is pending
for further analysis. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity with
a slight chance for M-class flares over the next three UT days.
The solar wind speed was gradually decreasing from 550 km/s to
450 km/s observed at 21/1120 UT, with the IMF Bt varying in the
range 4-5 nT without significant periods with negative Bz. Then
a shock wave was observed with an abrupt increase in the velocity
(up to 520 km/s), plasma density, and magnetic field Bt (up to
7 nT). This shock wave is probably associated with a CME and
C5.5 flare observed on 18 April. Then the solar wind was increasing
and reached 640 km/s at the time of the report. The IMF Bt reached
its maximum value of 14 nT at 1613 UT, the maximum negative Bz
was -10 nT. During the next UT day expect enhanced solar wind
speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 12102333
Cocos Island 8 01101433
Darwin 9 11102433
Learmonth 14 12203444
Alice Springs 9 11102433
Norfolk Island 7 01102333
Culgoora 8 12102333
Gingin 10 12103343
Camden 10 12213333
Canberra 7 01102333
Launceston 11 12213343
Hobart 12 -2203343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Apr :
Macquarie Island 16 12104534
Casey 13 24312333
Mawson 32 23222475
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 57 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30 5655 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 19 Active
23 Apr 35 Active to Minor Storm
24 Apr 40 Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 21 April and
is current for 22-24 Apr. Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled
across the Australian region during the UT day, 21 April. Isolated
Minor to Severe Storm levels were also observed in Antarctica.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain elevated during
the first half of the UT day 22 April due to the CME arrival;
isolated minor storm levels are possible. Active to Minor Storm
is expected for the UT days 23-24 April due to a recurrent coronal
hole becoming geoeffective. Major storm levels can be observed
on 23-24 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
23 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
24 Apr Fair Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region with periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions possible,
particularly over the southern areas of the Australian region
for the next UT day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
23 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: For the UT day, 21 April, mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs were observed over the Australian region. Mildly depressed
MUFs were observed in the Southern Australian region during local
day. Near predicted MUFs over the Australian region are expected
for the next three UT days, 22-24 April. However, moderately
depressed MUFs can occur in the Southern Australian Region and
in Antarctica. Near predicted and enhanced MUFs are expected
for 23 April due to predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 552 km/sec Density: 12.8 p/cc Temp: 433000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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