[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 06 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Apr 7 09:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
the largest event a C5.5 flare from region 2645 (S08W78). This
region still has some potential for producing M-class flares.
A filament observed lifting off from the NW limb is not likely
to be geoeffective. Low to moderate solar activity is expected
for 7-Apr, with low activity 8-9 Apr. The solar wind speed drifted
down from ~500 km/s to ~460 km/s. The total IMF strength declined
to around 4 nT, while the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT,
mostly southwards from 08-15 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11013211
Cocos Island 3 2101----
Darwin 2 1101----
Townsville 6 22023211
Learmonth 4 2210----
Alice Springs 4 11013210
Norfolk Island 3 11012210
Culgoora 5 12013211
Gingin 2 2100----
Camden 4 11113210
Canberra 2 01012210
Launceston 6 12123211
Hobart 4 11013211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 0011----
Casey 17 2442----
Mawson 18 23334434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 101 (Major storm)
Canberra 102 (Major storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2131 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet across the Australian
region, with a brief unsettled period 12-15 UT, likely due to
southward IMF Bz. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
on 7-8 Apr, with more disturbed conditions possible on 9-Apr
due to a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal Poor-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 4
April and is current for 5-7 Apr. Australian region MUFs were
mostly near monthly predicted values on 6-Apr, with minor nighttime
depressions in the north. In Tasmania, spread-F was observed
09-20 UT. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 11.0 p/cc Temp: 63700 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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