[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 April 17 issued 2334 UT on 05 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 6 09:34:44 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with
the largest event being a C4.9 flare from region 2645, peaking
at 2342/04 UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Region 2645
(S10W64) is diminishing in size but still has a small chance
of producing M-class flares. Low to moderate activity is predicted
for 6-7 Apr and low activity on 8-Apr. The solar wind rose to
around 500 km/s. The IMF total strength peaked around 14 nT,
currently 7 nT. The Bz component varied between -6 to +10 nT,
with no significant southward excursions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 22221322
Cocos Island 7 12212322
Darwin 7 2222132-
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 8 22222322
Alice Springs 7 12222322
Norfolk Island 5 21221221
Culgoora 7 22221322
Gingin 6 21211322
Canberra 5 11311212
Launceston 7 22312222
Hobart 6 12311212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 12201012
Casey 14 34321333
Mawson 19 23322326
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 17 2454 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions across the Australian region were
quiet on 5-Apr. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 4
April and is current for 5-7 Apr. Australian region MUFs were
mostly near monthly predicted values on 5-Apr, with isolated
daytime depressions in the north. In Tasmania, spread-F was observed
09-20 UT. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 59200 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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