[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 29 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 30 10:30:58 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 29 October.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low with a slight chance
of C-class X-ray flares for the next three days. No Earthward
bound CMEs observed with available SOHO imagery. DSCOVR plots
show the solar wind speed ranging from 525 to 725 km/s over the
last 24 hours and is currently 650km/s. The total Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) Bt varied from 10 to 5 nT. The Bz component
of the IMF fluctuated between +6/-9 nT with periods of prolonged
negative Bz, particularly during the first half of the UT day.
The large recurrent positive polarity coronal hole remains geoeffective
and the solar wind is expected to remain elevated today, 30 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 33333222
Cocos Island 9 33232121
Darwin 12 33333222
Townsville 13 33333322
Learmonth 15 33334332
Alice Springs 12 33333222
Norfolk Island 11 23333222
Culgoora 12 33333222
Gingin 16 43334223
Camden 16 33434322
Canberra 9 22333212
Launceston 20 34444323
Hobart 16 34434222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 37 45655432
Casey 22 55433223
Mawson 71 87634344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 16 3233 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 20 Active
31 Oct 12 Unsettled
01 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was predominately
Quiet to Unsettled with isolated cases of Active levels and reached
Storm levels at Mawson in the Antarctic region over the UT day,
29 October. Dst index indicates substorming in progress, dipping
to ~-80 nT at times. Expect Unsettled to Active conditions in
the Australian region with isolated cases of Minor Storm levels
at higher latitudes for the next UT day, 30 October, followed
by Unsettled conditions for 31 October - 01 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to depressed MUFs were observed for the UT day,
29 October. Expect these conditions to prevail for the next couple
days with some degradation in HF communication.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
31 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
01 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 27 October
and is current for 28-30 Oct. Normal to depressed MUFs were observed
for the UT day, 29 October, in the Aus/NZ region. Current depressions
are associated with low levels of ionising radiation and geomagnetic
activity resulting in ionospheric storming. Expect these conditions
to prevail for the next three days with some degradation in HF
communication. Note, there were periods of sporadic E observed
in the Australian region, particularly over Hobart station between
09-15UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: NA
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: NA
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: NA
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 595 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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