[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 28 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 29 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 80/20 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 28 October.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low with a slight chance
of C-class X-ray flares for the next three days, 29-31 October.
No Earthward bound CMEs observed with available SOHO imagery.
DSCOVR plots show that up to 0600 UT the solar wind speed was
steady, varying in the range 540-570 km/s, then it increased
and varied in the range 620-680 km/s. At 1800 UT the solar wind
speed started decreasing, currently it is 530 km/s. During the
last 24 hours the total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bt
varied between 5 and 8 nT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
between +4/-6 nT; it was predominately negative since 1830 UT.
The large recurrent positive polarity coronal hole remains geoeffective
and the solar wind is expected to remain elevated for the next
two days most likely ranging between 450-550 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Unsettled to
Active
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 22323322
Cocos Island 7 11223311
Darwin 7 11223222
Townsville 9 22323222
Learmonth 11 22324322
Alice Springs 10 22323322
Norfolk Island 6 21222222
Culgoora 8 22223222
Gingin 13 22324422
Camden 11 22333322
Canberra 7 11223222
Launceston 13 22334323
Hobart 12 12334223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
Macquarie Island 17 22454321
Casey 19 34443333
Mawson 50 44444576
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 58 (Unsettled)
Canberra 65 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25 4543 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 20 Unsettled to Active
30 Oct 12 Unsettled
31 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 27 October
and is current for 28-29 Oct. Geomagnetic activity in the Australian
region was predominately Quiet to Unsettled with isolated cases
of Active levels and reached Severe Storm levels at Mawson in
the Antarctic region over the UT day, 28 October. Dst index indicates
substorming in progress, dipping to ~-55 nT at times. Expect
Unsettled to Active conditions in the Australian region with
isolated cases of Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes for
the next UT day, 29 October, followed by Unsettled conditions
for 30-31 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly depressed to depressed MUFs were observed for
the UT day, 28 October. Expect these conditions to prevail for
the next couple days with some degradation in HF communication.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct -5 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
30 Oct 10 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
31 Oct 10 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 27 October
and is current for 28-30 Oct. Mildly depressed to depressed MUFs
were observed for the UT day, 28 October, in the Aus/NZ region.
Current depressions are associated with low levels of ionising
radiation and geomagnetic activity resulting in ionospheric storming.
Expect these conditions to prevail for the next three days with
some degradation in HF communication. Note, there were periods
of sporadic E observed in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 617 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 755000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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