[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 23 10:30:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 79/19 81/22
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 22 November.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days.
No Earthward directed CMEs observed in the available SOHO imagery.
Solar wind speed remained around 350 Km/s until 06 UT after which
it increased to reach 500Km/s ~12 UT and is currently around
450Km/s. The Bz component of the IMF has ranged between +/-7nT
over the UT day with a more disturbed period starting 06UT. At
the same time the total field Bt increased from 10nT to 15nT.
This signature is most likely associated with the passage of
the southern part of a large recurrent coronal hole. Solar wind
speed is expected to further increase due to the influence of
a high speed solar wind stream from the above-mentioned coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated Active periods.
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 11223333
Cocos Island 8 11222323
Darwin 10 11222433
Townsville 10 11223333
Learmonth 14 11233434
Alice Springs 9 11222333
Norfolk Island 7 21222232
Gingin 11 11223433
Camden 10 21223333
Canberra 9 11222333
Launceston 14 21323434
Hobart 13 21323433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
Macquarie Island 9 10223333
Casey 21 34443334
Mawson 33 43334337
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 35 Unsettled to Minor Storm
24 Nov 30 Unsettled to Minor Storm
25 Nov 20 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 22 November
and is current for 23-24 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
to Unsettled with isolated Active periods for the UT day, 22
November. Unsettled and Active conditions observed during the
later part of UT day in response to a more disturbed period of
Bz. Expect the geomagnetic activity to further increase over
the next three days due to an increase in the solar wind speed
associated with a large coronal hole. Activity may reach Major
Storm levels, particularly at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
24 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
25 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected over
the next three days due to low levels of ionising radiation and
expected rise in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
25 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly depressed HF conditions over the Northern Australian
region during local day were observed for the UT day, 22 November.
The Southern Australian region observed near predicted MUFs over
the UT day. Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected for
the next three days due to an increase in geomagnetic activity
and low levels of ionising radiation. Isolated cases of sporadic
E were noted throughout the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 26800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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