[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 November 16 issued 2338 UT on 21 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 22 10:38:47 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 21 November.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days
with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earthward directed
CMEs observed based on available SOHO imagery. Solar wind speed
remained around 350 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF has ranged
between +/-7nT over the UT day with a notable sustained southward
excursions between 16-20UT. The total field Bt ranged between
5-10 nT. Mid way through the UT day, 22 November, solar wind
speed is expected to gradually increase due to the influence
of a high speed solar wind stream from a large coronal hole extending
from the solar north pole across the equatorial region. In the
previous rotation,the solar wind speed reached 800 km/s. This
rotation the coronal hole is not as large as it was last rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11112122
Cocos Island 3 11001122
Darwin 4 11112122
Townsville 5 11112132
Learmonth 4 10112222
Alice Springs 4 11102122
Norfolk Island 4 12012121
Gingin 4 11111222
Camden 5 12212122
Canberra 3 01112121
Launceston 7 12222232
Hobart 5 01122222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 11012121
Casey 11 34322122
Mawson 10 33211224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 25 Quiet to Active with possible Minor storm periods.
23 Nov 35 Active to Minor Storm
24 Nov 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 51 was issued on 19 November
and is current for 21-22 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
for the UT day, 21 November. Expect the geomagnetic activity
to increase over the next three days due to an increase in the
solar wind speed associated with a large coronal hole. Activity
may reach Major Storm levels, particularly at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
23 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
24 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected over
the next three days due to low levels of ionising radiation and
expected rise in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
23 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 19 November
and is current for 22 Nov only. Slight MUF depressions were observed
in the Aus/NZ regions for the UT day, 21 November. Current depressions
are most likely associated with low levels of ionising radiation.
Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected for the next three
days due to an increase in geomagnetic activity and low levels
of ionising radiation. Note there were isolated periods of sporadic
E observed in the Australian region mainly between 06-09UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 31600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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