[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 14 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 15 10:30:35 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day, 14 November.
Expect Very Low to Low solar activity for the next three days
with a possible C-class flare from active region 2610. SOHO LASCO
C2 imagery shows no earthward directed CMEs based on available
imagery ending at 14/1958UT. Solar wind speed ranged between
675km/s to 575km/s over the last 24 hours and is currently ~600km/s.
The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +5/-4nT during
this period with the total B field near steady ranging from 4-6nT.
Solar wind speed is expected to gradually decline over the next
24 hours due to diminishing effects of the recent high speed
solar wind stream from the negative polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 21223212
Cocos Island 7 21222322
Darwin 6 11223212
Townsville 8 11233222
Learmonth 9 21223323
Alice Springs 6 11223212
Norfolk Island 7 21232212
Gingin 8 21223322
Camden 8 21233212
Canberra 5 11122212
Launceston 10 22233223
Hobart 7 11233013
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
Macquarie Island 14 21245312
Casey 31 55643323
Mawson 30 23344456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 23 4434 2253
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Nov 6 Quiet
17 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled for the
UT day, 14 November. Expect the geomagnetic conditions to gradually
return to Quiet levels over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours ranging
from notable depressions to near predicted monthly values. The
northern hemisphere currently shows mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs. The southern hemisphere varies from near predicted MUFs
to depressed MUFs. Expect similar conditions to prevail for the
UT day, 15 November. Note it is unclear why the southern hemisphere
MUFs are depressed, other than weak geomagnetic activity and
low ionising levels due to low sunspot numbers.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov -33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
16 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 14 November
and is current for 15 Nov only. Depressed HF conditions observed
for all regions over the last 24 hours. Continued MUF depressions
of ~10-30% expected for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions for the UT day, 15 November. Periods of disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions may occur due to weak
geomagnetic activity. Improving ionospheric support expected
for 16-17 November. Noted isolated cases of sporadic E throughout
the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 681 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 222000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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