[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 November 16 issued 2347 UT on 13 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 14 10:47:36 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 13Nov. No earthward
directed CME's or significant solar region development and activity
observed over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed ranged between
680km/s to 750km/s for the first half of the UT day after which
it has begun to decline to be 665km/s at the time of this report.
The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-5nT over UT
day. Solar wind speed is expected to decline over the next 24
hours due to diminishing effects of the recent high speed solar
wind stream from the negative polarity coronal hole. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low to Low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 23233332
Cocos Island 10 22223332
Darwin 11 23233322
Townsville 13 23333233
Learmonth 15 33234333
Alice Springs 13 23333332
Norfolk Island 11 23233232
Gingin 12 32233332
Camden 13 23333233
Canberra 8 22222232
Launceston 15 33333333
Hobart 15 33333333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 26 33265432
Casey 47 56744343
Mawson 44 54434475
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 10 (Quiet)
Gingin 74 (Active)
Canberra 61 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17 2424 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 13 Unsettled to Active
15 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 13 November
and is current for 13-14 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions ranged from
Quiet to Unsettled over the last 24 hours with elevated solar
wind speed but lack of sustained southward Bz and nominal Btotal
values. Solar wind speed is expected to decline over the next
24 hours. Predominantly Unsettled conditions with small chance
of Active periods for 14Nov. Mostly Quiet conditions with possible
Unsettled periods for 15Nov-16Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
15 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours ranging
from notable depressions to near predicted monthly values for
low to mid latitudes. Notable periods of disturbed ionospheric
support for high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for
14Nov with improving ionospheric support expected for 15Nov-16Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov -10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
15 Nov 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed for all regions over
the last 24 hours. Continued MUF depressions of ~20% expected
for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions for
the 14Nov and periods of disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions. Improving ionospheric support expected for 15Nov-16Nov
with possible MUF depressions of 10%-20% for Southern AUS/NZ
regions for 15Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 654 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 299000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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