[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 7 10:30:36 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 6 November.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 7-9 November. The filament has lifted off by 5 November/0400
UT in the northwest quadrant; it is associated with a CME that
is observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery after 5 November/0448 UT. The
analysis shows that this CME is likely to become geoeffective
on 8 November. DSCOVR plots show that over the last 24 hours
the solar wind speed was varying in the range 300-330 km/s, currently
at 310 km/s. The total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bt
varied from 2 to 5 nT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
between -5/+3 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain near its nominal
levels during the next UT day, 7 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11122111
Cocos Island 1 010-----
Darwin 3 11111---
Townsville 5 11222112
Learmonth 4 11122---
Alice Springs 3 1112210-
Norfolk Island 3 11122011
Culgoora 6 22222122
Gingin 4 11122---
Camden 4 11222111
Canberra 2 01112001
Launceston 6 12223121
Hobart 5 12223011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 01234---
Casey 17 34431---
Mawson 7 3122310-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1010 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 16 Unsettled to Active
08 Nov 40 Minor to Major Storm
09 Nov 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 6 November
and is current for 8 Nov only. Geomagnetic activity in the Australian
region was Quiet over the UT day, 6 November. In the Antarctic
region isolated Unsettled and Active levels were also observed.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions in the Australian region for the
next UT day, 7 November. On 8 November a CME is expected to arrive
at Earth and it may cause a Minor to Major Storm. There is a
chance that the CME will arrive at the end of the UT day of 7
November, resulting in increased geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Nov Fair Fair-poor Poor
09 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal MUFs were observed for the UT day, 6 November.
Expect similar conditions to prevail during the next UT day,
7 November. Expect some degradation in HF communication on the
second and third UT days, 8-9 October, because a minor to major
geomagnetic storm may occur.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
08 Nov -10 Depressed 5 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 0 Depressed 5 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 52 was issued
on 6 November and is current for 8-9 Nov. Mostly normal MUFs
were observed for the UT day, 6 November, in the Aus/NZ region.
Note, there were periods of sporadic E observed in the Australian
region. Expect similar conditions to prevail during the next
UT day, 7 November, for low and mid latitudes, with some degradation
in HF communication at high latitudes. Depressed conditions are
expected on 8-9 November as a result of increased geomagnetic
activity due to a CME.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 7880 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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