[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 November 16 issued 2340 UT on 05 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 6 10:40:58 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 5 November.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 6-8 November. In the southwest quadrant a 12-degree-long
filament lifted off after 4 November/0110 UT. A CME was detected
in the available LASCO imagery after 4 November/0748 UT. The
analysis shows that this CME does not seem to have a geoeffective
component. Another filament has lifted off by 5 November/0400
UT in the northwest quadrant; it is associated with a CME that
is observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery after 5 November/0448 UT. A
preliminary analysis shows that this CME is likely to become
geoeffective on 8 November. More detailed analysis is pending.
DSCOVR plots show that over the last 24 hours the solar wind
speed was varying in the range 320-370 km/s, decreasing on average,
currently at 330 km/s. The total Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) Bt varied from 3 to 5 nT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
between -2/+2 nT and was predominately positive. Expect the solar
wind to remain near its nominal levels during the next UT day,
6 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 21100002
Cocos Island 1 1110000-
Darwin 1 2110000-
Townsville 2 21100011
Learmonth 1 2100000-
Alice Springs 1 2110000-
Norfolk Island 2 21000012
Culgoora 9 4--22122
Gingin 1 2110000-
Camden 2 21100001
Canberra 0 10000001
Launceston 3 22100002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 1110000-
Casey 12 4433100-
Mawson 5 3222000-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2121 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 8 Quiet
07 Nov 16 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Nov 40 Minor to Major Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was Quiet
over the UT day, 5 November. In the Antarctic region isolated
Unsettled and Active levels were also observed. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions in the Australian region for the next two UT
days, 6-7 November. On 8 November a CME is expected to arrive
at Earth and it may cause a Minor to Major Storm.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Normal to mildly depressed MUFs were observed for the
UT day, 5 November. Expect similar conditions to prevail during
the next two UT days, 6-7 November. Expect some degradation in
HF communication on the third UT day, 8 October, because a minor
to major geomagnetic storm may occur.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
07 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
08 Nov -10 Depressed 5 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal to mildly depressed MUFs were observed for the
UT day, 5 November, in the Aus/NZ region. Note, there were periods
of sporadic E observed in the Australian region. Expect similar
conditions to prevail during the next two UT days, 6-7 November,
for low and mid latitudes, with some degradation in HF communication
at high latitudes. Depressed conditions are expected on 8 November
as a result of increased geomagnetic activity due to a CME.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 73000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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