[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 01 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 2 10:30:38 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 74/11 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 1 November.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 2-4 November. No Earthward bound CMEs observed with
available SOHO imagery. DSCOVR plots show the solar wind speed
was varying in the range 450-515 km/s over the last 24 hours
and is currently 470 km/s. The total Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) Bt varied from 3 to 7 nT. The Bz component of the
IMF fluctuated between -6/+5 nT. The Bz component was predominately
negative between 05 UT and 16 UT. The large recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole has nearly rotated around the west limb
with the southern part still geoeffective. Expect the solar wind
to remain elevated today, 2 November, however to tend toward
a decline with a return to nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 11243223
Cocos Island 5 11122222
Darwin 7 11232222
Townsville 10 11243223
Learmonth 12 12244223
Alice Springs 7 01233222
Norfolk Island 7 10233222
Culgoora 8 12232223
Gingin 12 11244223
Camden 9 11243222
Canberra 6 01232212
Launceston 13 12253223
Hobart 12 -2243223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
Macquarie Island 27 01275222
Casey 13 24333223
Mawson 14 33333412
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2322 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Nov 8 Quiet
04 Nov 8 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was Quiet
with isolated cases of Unsettled to Active levels over the UT
day, 1 November. In the Antarctic region isolated storm levels
were also observed. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions in the
Australian region for the next day, 2 November, and Quiet conditions
with isolated cases of Unsettled levels at higher latitudes for
the next 2 UT days, 03-04 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to depressed MUFs were observed for the UT day,
1 November. Expect normal conditions to prevail today, 2 November
with some degradation in HF communication at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
03 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
04 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Normal to mildly depressed MUFs were observed for the
UT day, 1 November, in the Aus/NZ region. Expect normal to mildly
depressed conditions to prevail for today, 2 November with some
degradation in HF communication at high latitudes. Note, there
were periods of sporadic E observed in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 509 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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