[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 31 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 1 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 76/14 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 31 October.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 1-3 November. No Earthward bound CMEs observed with
available SOHO imagery. DSCOVR plots show the solar wind speed
in a jittery decline from 550 to 480 km/s over the last 24 hours
and is currently 480 km/s. The total Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) Bt varied from 3 to 5 nT. The Bz component of the
IMF fluctuated between -4/+3 nT without periods of prolonged
negative Bz. The large recurrent positive polarity coronal hole
has nearly rotated around the west limb with the southern part
still geoeffective. Expect the solar wind to remain elevated
today, 1 November, however to tend toward a decline with a return
to nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Cocos Island 4 11122210
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 7 22232211
Learmonth 7 22223211
Alice Springs 5 11222211
Norfolk Island 5 12221211
Culgoora 6 22222221
Gingin 8 22223311
Camden 5 12222211
Canberra 4 12222200
Launceston 8 22323221
Hobart 5 222220--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 8 22333210
Casey 16 45332222
Mawson 27 44343355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 20 4433 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 8 Quiet
02 Nov 7 Quiet
03 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was Quiet
with isolated cases of Unsettled levels over the UT day, 31 October.
In the Antarctic region isolated minor storm levels were also
observed. Expect Quiet conditions in the Australian region with
isolated cases of Unsettled levels at higher latitudes for the
next 3 UT days, 01-03 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to depressed MUFs were observed for the UT day,
31 October. Expect these conditions to prevail today, 1 November
with some degradation in HF communication at high altitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
02 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
03 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 30 October
and is current for 31 Oct to 1 Nov. Normal to depressed MUFs
were observed for the UT day, 31 October, in the Aus/NZ region.
Current depressions are associated with low levels of ionising
radiation and recent geomagnetic activity resulting in ionospheric
storming. Expect normal to mildly depressed conditions to prevail
for today, 1 November with some degradation in HF communication
at high latitudes. Note, there were periods of sporadic E observed
in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 600 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 237000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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