[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 16 issued 2351 UT on 30 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 31 09:51:25 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low over the past 24 hours
with the largest event being a C1.4 flare from region 2550 (N13W21)
at 0737UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery. Solar wind speed ranged between 450-550 km/s and
is currently ~500km/s at the time of this report. A gradual decrease
in solar wind speed is expected over the next 24 hours as the
influence of the recent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream
diminishes. The north south component of the Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) fluctuated between +/-5nT with no sustained southward
periods. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity due to a chance
for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22321311
Cocos Island 4 21220201
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 7 22321311
Learmonth 9 32331311
Alice Springs 7 22321301
Norfolk Island 6 22321201
Gingin 9 32321312
Camden 7 22321311
Canberra 7 22321311
Melbourne 8 22331311
Launceston 10 22431312
Hobart 8 22331311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
Macquarie Island 13 22441421
Casey 10 33322222
Mawson 29 64443225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2212 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jun 6 Quiet
02 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for 31May with chance
of isolated Active periods. Mostly Quiet conditions expected
for 01Jun-02Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions over the next
3 days with mildly depressed ionospheric support at times for
low to mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Notable MUF depressions for Equatorial and Northern
AUS regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs near predicted monthly
values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions, with occasional
disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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