[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 16 issued 2338 UT on 29 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 30 09:38:47 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 May 31 May 01 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was Very Low during 29 May
UT. Active region 2548 produced several B-class flares. The largest
flare, B7.2, peaked at 0656 UT. A smaller flare, B6.5, peaked
at 0904 UT and was accompanied by a CME, which does not seem
to have a geoeffective component. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery. Expect Very Low to Low
solar activity due to a chance for C-class flares. The solar
wind speed varied in the range 420-550 km/s. At the time of the
report it is gradually increasing and fluctuating in the vicinity
of 510 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) varied in the range 3-8 nT and its component Bz was fluctuating
between about -5 nT and +5 nT. For the next 24 hours expect the
solar wind speed to reach values up to 550-580 km/s due to coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 May : A K
Australian Region 5 12220122
Cocos Island 4 11220022
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 7 22221123
Alice Springs 4 12210112
Norfolk Island 2 12110011
Gingin 5 22110123
Camden 6 22221122
Canberra 3 12110112
Melbourne 6 12220123
Launceston 6 12221213
Hobart 4 12220112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
Macquarie Island 6 22330012
Casey 10 33222223
Mawson 24 34233246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16 4352 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 May 14 Unsettled to Active
31 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 27 May and
is current for 28-30 May. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
Quiet during 29 May UT and reached Unsettled levels in the Southern
Australian region by the end of the day. In the Antarctica region
geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled. Active
and Major Storm levels were observed by Mawson. Geomagnetic conditions
in the Australian region are expected to be Unsettled to Active
on 30 May UT with a chance of short Minor Storm periods due to
coronal hole effects. During 31 May and 1 June UT geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled because the
coronal hole effects are expected to wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be normal to mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern
Hemispheres during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 May 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 May 40 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
31 May 40 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
01 Jun 35 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On 29 May conditions for HF radio wave propagation were
near predicted monthly values in the Antarctic and Southern Australian
regions. In the Northern Australian region the conditions were
near predicted monthly values during local day and were mildly
depressed during local night. During the next 3 days conditions
in the Australian region are expected to remain near predicted
monthly values with mildly depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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