[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 05 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 6 09:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels during the last 24
hours. The largest event during this period was a C1.7 flare
from region 2542(N09E70). This flare peaked at 2248UT on 4 May.
Solar wind stream has shown further weakening today. Solar wind
speed decreased from 400 to nearly 360 km/s during the day. The
Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5 nT during most parts
of the UT day today. Solar activity may be expected to stay at
very low to low levels during the next three days (6, 7 and 8
May). A high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole may
start to strengthen the solar wind stream from late hours on
6 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 5 01132220
Cocos Island 3 10121210
Darwin 4 11122210
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 6 00233220
Alice Springs 4 01122220
Norfolk Island 3 11122110
Gingin 6 00233220
Camden 6 01133221
Canberra - --------
Launceston 8 01233321
Hobart 6 01133221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
Macquarie Island 8 00244210
Casey 9 23322222
Mawson 14 13233225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 7 Quiet
07 May 15 Unsettled to Active
08 May 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet to unsettled levels
on 5 May. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 6 May with
the possibility of rise to unsettled levels during late hours
on this day due to possible start of a coronal hole effect. Unsettled
to active levels are likely on 7 and 8 May due to the coronal
hole effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with some minor
to mild MUF depression periods observed in mid latitude regions.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected on 6 May. Further
depressions in MUFs may be expected on 7 and 8 June due to expected
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 35 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
08 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in the Australian/NZ
regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected in
this region on 6 May. Further depressions in MUFs may be expected
in this region on 7 and 8 June due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 82800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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