[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 04 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 5 09:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels during the last 24
hours. Today's largest event was a C1.3 flare from region 2535(N07W68).
This flare peaked at 1351UT and was associated with a Type II
radio burst and a coronal mass ejection. This CME does not seem
to be geoeffective. Solar wind stream has shown further weakening
today. Solar wind speed decreased from 470 to nearly 400 km/s
during the day. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4 nT
during most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity may be
expected to stay at low levels during the next three days (5,
6 and 7 May). Another low C-class flare has just been observed
before issuing this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11011100
Cocos Island 1 11100100
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 2 20111100
Alice Springs 1 11011100
Norfolk Island 1 11010101
Gingin 3 20111210
Camden 2 11021100
Canberra - --------
Launceston 3 12022200
Hobart 3 11022200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
Macquarie Island 2 11021000
Casey 7 33211211
Mawson 8 23200224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 4532 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 5 Quiet
06 May 7 Quiet to Unsettled
07 May 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels on 4 May.
Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected on
5 May. Geomagnetic activity may rise to unsettled levels on 6
May and to active levels on 7 May due to a coronal hole effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in some
low and mid-latitude regions. Nearly similar HF conditions may
be expected on 5 and most parts of 6 May. Further depressions
in MUFs may be expected on 7 June due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 40 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 40 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in the Australian/NZ
regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected in
this region on 5 and most parts of 6 May. Further depressions
in MUFs may be expected on 7 June due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 532 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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