[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 20 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 21 10:30:33 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels on 20 March. Two
C-class flares were observed from region 2521(N18W91), the largest
being a C3.7 event that peaked at 0133 UT. Solar wind stream
remained steady today. Solar wind speed stayed mostly between
400 and 450 km/s during this period. The Bz component of IMF
mostly varied between +/-5 nT during the first half of the UT
day today and then stayed mostly negative up to around -5 nT
during the second half of the day. Solar wind stream may continue
to remain moderately strong on 21 March. Solar wind stream may
start to gain some strength around the second half of UT day
22 March again due to the possibility of a northern hemisphere
coronal hole becoming geoeffective around that time. Due to the
location of the coronal hole this effect may not be too strong.
Very low levels of solar activity, with some possibility of isolated
C-class activity, may be expected from 21 to 23 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 12123442
Cocos Island 10 22112441
Darwin 8 11123332
Townsville 8 12123331
Learmonth 12 22123442
Norfolk Island 5 11112231
Culgoora 8 12113332
Gingin 18 22123553
Canberra 10 12123341
Launceston 12 12223442
Hobart 12 12223442
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
Macquarie Island 15 11124541
Casey 17 34333342
Mawson 40 34332674
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 2344 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 7 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Mar 5 Quiet
23 Mar 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind stayed slightly stronger than expectations
on 20 March and the Bz component of IMF showed sustained periods
of negative polarity. This resulted in slightly higher than expected
rise in geomagnetic activity up to active levels. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to gradually decline over the next two days
(21 and 22 March). The possible effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a coronal hole may again raise the geomagnetic
activity to unsettled levels on 23 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed on 20 March.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days (21 to 23 March).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
22 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
23 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in almost
all areas in the Aus/NZ region on 20 March. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected in this region for the next three days (21 to
23 March).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 84300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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