[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 16 issued 2334 UT on 23 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 24 09:34:01 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day 23 June.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days.
LASCO C2 imagery shows a the beginning of a CME on the northeast
limb at 23/2048UT. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speed varied between 340
km/s and 500 km/s. ACE SWEPAM data indicates the Earth was influence
by two separate coronal holes during this period as the solar
wind initially reached ~460 km/s followed by a decrease to 340km/s
then increasing again at ~1500UT to its current speed of ~500Km/s.
The total IMF strength varied between 4nT and 10nT during the
last 24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +7nT
and -9nT, reaching -9nT at ~1530UT. Expect the solar wind to
remain elevated for the next two days followed by a gradual return
to nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 12100222
Cocos Island 4 12111212
Darwin 5 22110222
Townsville 7 23111322
Learmonth 5 22101222
Alice Springs 5 13100222
Norfolk Island 7 13---222
Gingin 4 12100222
Camden 5 13101222
Canberra 3 12000222
Melbourne 4 12101222
Launceston 6 13100223
Hobart 3 12000222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 01000222
Casey 13 33211252
Mawson 30 35211337
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 1101 2354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jun 12 Unsettled
25 Jun 12 Unsettled
26 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet across the
Australian region for the UT day, 23 June. Expect Quiet to Unsettled
conditions today and tomorrow with isolated periods of Active
levels in the higher latitudes. Expect a gradual return to mostly
Quiet conditions on 26 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative
to monthly predicted values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jun 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed in the Australian region
during the UT day 23 June. MUFs were near predicted monthly values
for the Antarctic region with periods of little to no ionospheric
support for HF communications during the long local night hours.
Expect similar conditions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 31600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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