[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 23 09:30:23 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the UT day 22 June.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low during the next three
days. A 23 degree disappearing solar filament was observed in
GONG H-alpha between 0530UT and 1400UT at N45W42. C2 imagery
showed some associated wispy ejecta to the NW which is not expected
to be geoeffective. During the UT day, 22 June, the solar wind
speed initially declined from 370 km/s to 340 km/s then at ~0500UT
there was a solar sector boundary (SSB) crossing and a gradual
increase in solar wind speed to the current ~400km/s. The total
IMF strength increased from 2nT to ~13nT after the SSB crossing.
The Bz component of the IMF was mostly near zero prior to the
SSB and then fluctuated between +8/-6 nT for the remainder of
the UT day. Expect a continued rise to near 500km/s in the solar
wind speed with variance in the IMF due to the northern coronal
hole becoming geoeffective for the next several days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 01012232
Cocos Island 5 01011233
Darwin 7 --211232
Townsville 6 11122232
Learmonth 5 00011332
Alice Springs 5 01111232
Norfolk Island 7 ---12232
Gingin 5 01011332
Camden 5 11112222
Canberra 5 01012232
Melbourne 6 01012332
Launceston 6 11012332
Hobart 5 01012322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 00022221
Casey 5 11221222
Mawson 15 33121335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1110 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 16 Active
24 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
25 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic went from Quiet to Unsettled conditions
across the Australian region for the UT day, 22 June as the solar
wind intensifies. Expect Unsettled conditions to prevail today
and tomorrow with isolated periods of Active levels in the higher
latitudes. Expect a gradual decrease in activity on 25 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Due to lower then predicted solar activity in this period
of the solar cycle, expect MUFS to be mildly depressed relative
to monthly predicted values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed in the Australian region
during the UT day 22 June. MUFs were near predicted monthly values
for the Antarctic region with some enhancements noted and periods
of little to no ionospheric support for HF communications. Expect
similar conditions during the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 56600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list