[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 10 09:30:19 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jun             11 Jun             12 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              95/41

COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day, 
9 June, with two weak C-class flares. Region 2552 is showing 
sign of growth and was the source of one of the C-class flares. 
The strongest C-class flare, C1.5, peaked at 09/1234 UT. The 
two day outlook (10-11 June) is for solar activity to remain 
at low levels with chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. The partial-halo 
CME observed at 09/0148 UT appears to be caused by activity on 
the rear-side of the Sun. The solar wind speeds continue to trend 
towards ambient levels, declining from approximately 400 km/s 
to nearly 350 km/s during the past 24 hours. The Bz component 
of IMF was very weak, fluctuating between -3 and +3 nT during 
the UT day. Bt was steady near 4 nT throughout the UT day. The 
two day outlook (10 -11 June) is for the solar winds to start 
enhancing again as a large Northern Hemisphere coronal hole approaches 
geoeffective location on the solar disk.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10001010
      Cocos Island         1   11100010
      Darwin               1   10000011
      Townsville           1   10000011
      Learmonth            1   10001020
      Alice Springs        0   10000010
      Norfolk Island       0   10000010
      Gingin               1   10001020
      Camden               1   11001010
      Canberra             0   10000010
      Melbourne            1   20001010
      Launceston           2   21001010
      Hobart               1   --001010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                4   22111120
      Mawson               9   32112241

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2312 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun    16    Active
12 Jun    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region 
were mostly at quiet levels during the past 24 hours (June 9). 
Similar conditions are expected on early part of today (10 June). 
On late 10 June or thereabout, expect conditions to become unsettled 
at times as the effects of high-speed stream from a Northern 
Hemisphere coronal hole becomes geoeffective. On UT day 11 June, 
mostly unsettled and at times reaching active geomagnetic levels 
are expected in response to the passage of the coronal hole. 
Minors storms are possible depending on the orientation of IMF 
Bz conditions during periods of high solar wind speeds.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Slightly depressed to near monthly predicted MUFs are 
expected today, 10 June. Expect some degradation of high latitudes 
MUFs on 11 June in response to the forecasted active conditions 
associated with the approaching coronal hole. Depressions are 
expected to be stronger in the Northern Hemisphere regions compared 
to the Southern Hemisphere during this time of the year.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jun    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      32
Jun      44
Jul      43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: In the past 24 hours (09 June) moderate MUF depressions 
were observed over most parts of Australia due to very low levels 
of solar ionising radiation. The Antarctic region MUFs were mostly 
near monthly predicted values. Slightly improved MUFs are expected 
today, June 10, in response to the forecasted active periods 
associated with the coronal hole effects. The outlook of 11-12 
June is of HF conditions to degrade slightly in mid and high 
latitude regions of Australia. These conditions are expected 
after the passage of active period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 430 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    94600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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