[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 10 09:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
9 June, with two weak C-class flares. Region 2552 is showing
sign of growth and was the source of one of the C-class flares.
The strongest C-class flare, C1.5, peaked at 09/1234 UT. The
two day outlook (10-11 June) is for solar activity to remain
at low levels with chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. The partial-halo
CME observed at 09/0148 UT appears to be caused by activity on
the rear-side of the Sun. The solar wind speeds continue to trend
towards ambient levels, declining from approximately 400 km/s
to nearly 350 km/s during the past 24 hours. The Bz component
of IMF was very weak, fluctuating between -3 and +3 nT during
the UT day. Bt was steady near 4 nT throughout the UT day. The
two day outlook (10 -11 June) is for the solar winds to start
enhancing again as a large Northern Hemisphere coronal hole approaches
geoeffective location on the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 10001010
Cocos Island 1 11100010
Darwin 1 10000011
Townsville 1 10000011
Learmonth 1 10001020
Alice Springs 0 10000010
Norfolk Island 0 10000010
Gingin 1 10001020
Camden 1 11001010
Canberra 0 10000010
Melbourne 1 20001010
Launceston 2 21001010
Hobart 1 --001010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 4 22111120
Mawson 9 32112241
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2312 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun 16 Active
12 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region
were mostly at quiet levels during the past 24 hours (June 9).
Similar conditions are expected on early part of today (10 June).
On late 10 June or thereabout, expect conditions to become unsettled
at times as the effects of high-speed stream from a Northern
Hemisphere coronal hole becomes geoeffective. On UT day 11 June,
mostly unsettled and at times reaching active geomagnetic levels
are expected in response to the passage of the coronal hole.
Minors storms are possible depending on the orientation of IMF
Bz conditions during periods of high solar wind speeds.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Slightly depressed to near monthly predicted MUFs are
expected today, 10 June. Expect some degradation of high latitudes
MUFs on 11 June in response to the forecasted active conditions
associated with the approaching coronal hole. Depressions are
expected to be stronger in the Northern Hemisphere regions compared
to the Southern Hemisphere during this time of the year.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: In the past 24 hours (09 June) moderate MUF depressions
were observed over most parts of Australia due to very low levels
of solar ionising radiation. The Antarctic region MUFs were mostly
near monthly predicted values. Slightly improved MUFs are expected
today, June 10, in response to the forecasted active periods
associated with the coronal hole effects. The outlook of 11-12
June is of HF conditions to degrade slightly in mid and high
latitude regions of Australia. These conditions are expected
after the passage of active period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 94600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list