[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 9 09:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 82/23 85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 8 June. There is currently one sunspot region (Region 2552)
on the visible solar disc and it produced a weak B-class flare
(B2.3) peaking at 08/0416. The two day outlook (9-10 June) is
for solar activity to remain at very low levels with no notable
flares expected. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speeds continue to trend
towards ambient levels, declining from approximately 450 km/s
at beginning of the UT day to near 400 km/s at 08/2350 UT. The moderately
elevated solar winds are due to effects of high speed streams
from the passage of the equatorial coronal hole. The Bz component
of IMF was very weak, fluctuating between -3 and +3 nT during
the past 24 hours. Bt was steady near 5 throughout the UT day.
The outlook for 9 June is for the solar winds to continue trending
towards background levels as the coronal hole effects wane. On
late UT day 10 June or therefore, the solar winds are expected
to start enhancing again as a Northern Hemisphere coronal hole
approaches geoeffective location on the solar disk. In the previous
rotation, this coronal hole caused daily mean solar wind
speed of 516 km/s. Similar daily mean speeds are expected in
this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 12122100
Cocos Island 1 11011100
Darwin 4 22122100
Townsville 4 22122100
Learmonth 4 22032100
Alice Springs 4 22122100
Norfolk Island 2 12021000
Gingin 4 12032100
Camden 5 12132101
Canberra 4 12032000
Melbourne 5 12120000
Launceston 4 12132100
Hobart 5 12032000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 11042000
Casey 5 32222000
Mawson 14 44234300
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2112 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jun 6 Quiet
10 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region
were mostly at quiet levels during the past 24 hours (June 8).
Similar conditions are expected today (9 June) and on early tomorrow
(10 June). On late 10 June or therefore, expect conditions to
become unsettled at times as the effects of high-speed stream
from a Northern Hemisphere coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
On UT day 11 June, mostly unsettled and at times reaching active
geomagnetic levels are expected in response to the passage of
the coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal-fair Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUF periods compared to monthly predicted
levels continued over the high latitude Northern Hemisphere regions
in last 24 hours (8 June). Conditions are expected to improve
slightly today (9 June) in the Northern Hemisphere regions as
the 5th June geomagnetic storm effects wane. In contrast, weaker
or no depression are expected in the Southern Hemisphere today
9 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jun 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: In the past 24 hours (08 June) mild to moderate MUF
depressions were observed during the local night over the Equatorial
and Northern Australian regions. MUF over the Southern Australian
region were mostly near monthly predicted values. Slightly improved
MUFs are expected for most Australian regions today, June 9.
The outlook of 10-11 June is of HF conditions to remain near
monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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