[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 10 09:30:16 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 9 July. A C2.6 flare was observed
at 1607 UT from region 2564(N09E63). This region also produced
some B-class flares. As expected solar wind stream continued
to stay strong due to the coronal hole effect. Solar wind speed
mostly stayed between 600 and 650 km/s (approx.) during the UT
day today. IMF Bz varied mostly between +/-7 nT on this day.
This coronal hole effect is likely to keep the solar wind stream
strong on 10 July as well. Solar activity is expected to stay
at very low levels over the next three days (10, 11 and 12 July)
with some possibility of isolated C-class activity. A high speed
solar wind stream from another coronal hole may strengthen solar
wind parameters from 11 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet to active,
isolated minor storm periods on high latitudes
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 12 22334321
Cocos Island 6 22223210
Darwin 10 32333211
Townsville 11 22334221
Learmonth 12 22334321
Alice Springs 11 22334221
Norfolk Island 9 -2333221
Gingin 13 32334321
Canberra 10 22333321
Melbourne 12 22334321
Hobart 10 22333321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
Macquarie Island 22 22536321
Casey 32 33334472
Mawson 36 65553432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 77 (Active)
Canberra 74 (Active)
Melbourne 98 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22 4334 5443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled, active periods possible
11 Jul 18 Quiet to Active
12 Jul 18 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: As anticipated, the geomagnetic activity showed increases
to unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm conditions
on high latitudes on 9 July. Despite high solar wind speed, the
geomagnetic activity did not rise to sustained minor storm levels
as IMF Bz did not stay southwards for long enough intervals of
time. The current coronal hole may keep geomagnetic activity
enhanced up to active levels on 10 July. The possible effect
of another coronal hole may enhance geomagnetic activity from
11 July. Mostly quiet to active levels of activity may be expected
on 11 and 12 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed on UT
day 9 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation and rise in
geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to moderate depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely from 10
to 12 July due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation
and the possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic activity
levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 25 Depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 25 Depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 25 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed over
the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions on UT day 9 July.
These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due to continued
very low levels of ionising radiation and rise in geomagnetic
activity on this day. Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions are likely in the Aus/NZ regions
from 10 to 12 July due to continued very low levels of ionising
radiation and the possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 568 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 212000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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