[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 9 09:30:36 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 87/30 87/30
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 8 July. A C2.7 flare was observed
at 0056 UT from region 2564(N10E79). This region also produced
a few B-class flares. As expected solar wind stream continued
to stay strong due to the coronal hole effect. Solar wind speed
gradually increased from 500 to over 600 km/s (approx.) during
this time. IMF Bz varied mostly between +/-8 nT on this day.
This coronal hole effect is likely to keep the solar wind stream
strong on 9 and possibly 10 July as well. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels over the next three days (9, 10 and
11 July) with some possibility of isolated C-class activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Mostly quiet
to active, isolated minor storm periods on high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 23344221
Cocos Island 8 22223230
Darwin 9 22333221
Townsville 15 23444221
Learmonth 18 23345331
Alice Springs 13 23344221
Norfolk Island 11 2234--21
Gingin 20 23355331
Canberra 17 22454222
Melbourne 20 23454332
Hobart 18 22454322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
Macquarie Island 40 22476442
Casey 15 33334332
Mawson 39 55544462
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 64 (Active)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 21 3333 3544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 20 Unsettled to minor storm
10 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled, isolated active periods possible
11 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: As anticipated, the geomagnetic activity showed increases
to unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm conditions
on high latitudes on 8 July. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected on 9 July. Geomagnetic conditions may gradually decline
from 10 July. Unsettled to active levels on 10 July and quiet
to unsettled levels on 11 July may be expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed on UT
day 8 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation and rise in
geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to moderate depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely from 9 to
11 July due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation
and the possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic activity
levels during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 25 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 30 Depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 35 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 6 July
and is current for 7-9 Jul. Mild to moderate MUF depressions
were observed over the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions
on UT day 8 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation and rise
in geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to moderate depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely in the Aus/NZ
regions from 9 to 11 July due to continued very low levels of
ionising radiation and the possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list