[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 30 10:30:33 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low for the UT day, 29 Jan.
Several C-class flares were observed from region 2488(N04W66).
Expect Low solar activity over the next three days with a chance
of an isolated M-class flare especially from region 2488. A disappearing
solar filament was visible in GONG H-alpha, in the southwest
quadrant at approximately 0830UT. A weak CME was observed in
SOHO LASCO imagery about this time. Any geoeffective consequence
is likely to be minor. No other Earthward directed CMEs were
noted in available SOHO imagery for 29 Jan. The solar wind speed
is currently under 300km/s. The Bz component of the IMF varied
between +/-4 nT over the last 24 hours. There may be weak enhancements
in solar winds due to high solar wind stream from a polar coronal
hole over the coming hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11101101
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 1 11101001
Townsville 3 21111111
Learmonth 2 21101101
Norfolk Island 1 11100001
Culgoora 2 11101101
Canberra 0 10100000
Launceston 2 12101101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 9 34311111
Mawson 9 23112224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1033 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jan 5 Quiet
01 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels throughout
the Australian region during the UT day, 29Jan. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain Quiet 30 Jan - 1 Feb in the Australian
region. Possible Unsettled levels on 30 Jan especially if IMF
Bz has an extended southward excursion.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions for HF radio propagation 30
Jan-1 Feb. Possible Brief shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mainly near
predicted monthly values with variable conditions Northern/Equatorial
regions for the UT day, 29Jan. Isolated periods of blanketing
sporadic-E conditions continue to be observed in Australian region.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next few days. Possible
Brief shortwave fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 46400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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