[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 29 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
C9.0 1202UT probable lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 108/58 105/54
COMMENT: Several C-class flares were observed from region 2488(N04W55),
the largest being a C9.6 flare at 1202UT. More C class flares
are likely with a chance of an isolated M class flare during
29-31 Jan. The flare activity was associated with two narrow
fast CMEs observed in SOHO LASCO imagery around 0720UT and 1220UT.
This CME activity does not seem to be earthward directed. No
other Earthward directed CMEs were noted in available SOHO imagery
for 28 Jan. Solar wind speed remained under 400km/s during the
UT day today and the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-7
nT with a sustained southward period between 0600-1000UT. High
solar wind stream from a large polar coronal hole may enhance
solar wind speeds in the coming days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 11231111
Cocos Island 2 01121000
Darwin 3 11121111
Townsville 6 22231111
Learmonth 4 11221211
Norfolk Island 6 11331012
Culgoora 5 11231111
Canberra 3 01221101
Launceston 6 01331211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 15 01553110
Casey 12 24432112
Mawson 12 32233214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1201 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
throughout the Australian region during the UT day, 28Jan. Unsettled
periods observed ~ 0900UT in response to a Bz extended southward
excussion 0600-1000UT. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
Quiet to Unsettled 29-30 Jan in the Australian region. Possible
isolated Active levels at higher latitudes on 29 Jan especially
if IMF Bz has an extended southward excursion.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions for HF radio propagation 29-31
Jan. Possible Brief shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mainly near
predicted values for the UT day, 28Jan. Noted isolated periods
of sporadic E throughout the Australian region. Expect similar
conditions to prevail over the next few days. Possible Brief
shortwave fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 35500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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