[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 12 10:30:26 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 11 Jan UT and
is expected to remain very low to low during the next 2 days.
A few C class flares are possible. GONG H alpha images show a
large filament has rotated around the north east limb into view.
There are no Earthward directed CMEs. The solar wind speed increased
from about 400 km/s to about 650 km/s during 11 Jan. The solar
wind speed is presently about 580 km/s and fluctuating. The magnitude
of the IMF increased from about 3 nT to about 10 nT. The Bz component
has been in the range -7 nT to +7 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 23312332
Cocos Island 8 23212232
Darwin 10 23312332
Townsville 11 23322332
Learmonth 11 22323332
Alice Springs 11 23322332
Norfolk Island 8 13312222
Culgoora 7 12212232
Gingin 11 22213342
Canberra 10 13312332
Melbourne 13 23323342
Launceston 13 23323342
Hobart 9 23312232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 12212332
Casey 26 35543343
Mawson 28 24323564
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1112 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 10 January and
is current for 12-13 Jan. Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled
throughout the Australian region during 11 Jan UT. The planetary
Kp index reached 4 during 18-21 UT due to the arrival of fast
wind exceeding 600 km/s. Conditions are expected to be unsettled
to active during 12 Jan, returning to quiet by 14 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mildly depressed
in the Northern Hemisphere, and near predicted monthly values
to enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere during 11 Jan UT. Support
for HF radio propagation is expected to depress during 12-13
Jan due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation in the Australian
region were near predicted monthly values to enhanced during
11 Jan UT. The enhancements were strongest at low latitude stations.
Depressions are possible during 12-13 Jan due to increased geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 71500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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