[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 11 10:30:25 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 108/58 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 2483 (N18E21) grew. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days. The
solar wind speed hovered around 440 km/s. The total IMF strength
peaked around 8 nT and is currently around 4 nT. The Bz component
varied between -5 to +8 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to increase
during 12-Jan due to a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 11222212
Cocos Island 4 11122111
Darwin 4 11112212
Townsville 7 11223222
Learmonth 6 22122222
Alice Springs 5 11122212
Norfolk Island 4 01222022
Culgoora 4 11121112
Gingin 6 21122222
Camden - --------
Canberra 5 12222112
Melbourne 7 12223212
Launceston 7 22223212
Hobart 6 11223112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
Macquarie Island 7 11134111
Casey 20 45532222
Mawson 19 33333254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1112 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 5 Quiet
12 Jan 12 Quiet, then Unsettled to Active
13 Jan 12 Unsettled to Active, then Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic activity across the Australian region on 10-Jan
was quiet. Some active to minor storm periods were observed in
the Antarctic. Conditions are expected to remain quiet until
the arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream, during
12-Jan. Subsequently, brief unsettled to active periods are likely
in the Australian region, with minor storm levels at higher latitudes.
These conditions will probably continue into 13-Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
13 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible on 13-Jan
if expected geomagnetic disturbance occurs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 55
Jan 61
Feb 61
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly
enhanced on 10-Jan. Periods of sporadic-E were observed at Brisbane,
Canberra and Hobart. MUFs are likely be near monthly predicted
values to mildly enhanced on 11-12 Jan, with mild depressions
possible on 13-Jan due to an expected disturbance in geomagnetic
conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 57000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list