[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 16 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jan 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 1 10:30:31 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Feb             02 Feb             03 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low for the UT day, 31 
Jan. Solar flare activity is expected to be Very Low to Low over 
the next three days. No Earthward directed CMEs were noted in 
available SOHO imagery for 31 Jan. Solar wind speed remained 
under 300km/s. The IMF Bz reached -8nT ~ 0400UT and remained 
negative for the remainder of the UT day. Solar wind speeds are 
expected to be at nominal levels 01-02 Feb before picking up 
03 Feb due to coronal hole effects. The IMF Bz is currently southward.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12222212
      Cocos Island         4   12101212
      Darwin               5   12122112
      Townsville           6   12222122
      Learmonth            6   11222222
      Norfolk Island       4   02121112
      Culgoora             5   12222112
      Canberra             3   01121112
      Launceston          10   12332323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     9   01234312
      Casey                8   2422210-
      Mawson              14   33233333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0010 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Feb    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels throughout 
the Australian region during the UT day, 31 Jan. Unsettled periods 
observed at higher latitudes in response to a Bz extended southward 
excussion. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions until the high 
speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole impacts 
Earth day three, 03 Feb, then expect Active conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
02 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jan    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      55
Jan      61
Feb      61

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mostly near 
predicted monthly values. Periods of blanketing sporadic-E conditions 
continue to be observed at some mid-latitude locations today. 
Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed from 03 Feb 
due to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 275 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    13300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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