[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 December 16 issued 2337 UT on 21 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 22 10:37:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
As anticipated, solar wind speed got strengthened due to the
coronal hole effect. Solar wind speed started increasing around
0400 UT and increased from 350 km/s to around 670 km/s with a
highest value around 680 km/s. During the late hours of the day
this speed gradually decreased to around 560 km/s by the time
of this report (2330UT). Bz was close (mostly <2nT) to the normal
value until the coronal hole effect started around 0400 UT. Bz
then varied mostly between +/-10 nT. Bt varied approximately
between 9 and 13 nT during this time. This coronal hole effect
is expected to keep the solar wind stream strong for the next
three days (22 to 24 December). Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next three days (22, 23 and 24 December)
with a slight possibility of isolated C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to major
storm
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 22133432
Cocos Island 11 12133432
Darwin 13 32133432
Townsville 14 22133532
Learmonth 17 22134533
Alice Springs 14 22133532
Norfolk Island 12 22133432
Gingin 15 32134433
Camden 13 22233433
Canberra 12 22133432
Launceston 16 23234433
Hobart 15 22234433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
Macquarie Island 45 12157732
Casey 33 35553534
Mawson 61 33345865
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1012 1202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 35 Active to minor storm, some major storm periods
possible
23 Dec 30 Active to minor storm, isolated major storm periods
possible
24 Dec 20 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 19 December
and is current for 20-22 Dec. As anticipated, geomagnetic activity
showed enhancements today (21 December). Periods of minor storm
and isolated periods of major storm on high latitudes were observed.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain enhanced during the
next three days due to coronal hole effect. Activity may rise
upto minor storm and at times major storm on 22 and 23 December.
A gradual decline in activity is expected from 24 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal-poor Fair-poor Poor
23 Dec Normal-poor Fair-poor Poor
24 Dec Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near normal today. Minor to significant
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected
from 22 to 24 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec -20 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
23 Dec -15 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
24 Dec -10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near normal in Aus/NZ regions today.
Minor to significant MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
may be expected from 22 to 24 December in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 30000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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