[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 15 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 16 09:30:26 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 111/62 111/62 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, the largest
event being a C4 X-ray flare from region 2529 (N10W20), peaking
at 15/1430 UT. This region has the potential for M-class events.
Low to moderate solar activity is expected for the next three
days. The solar wind speed varied between 350-420 km/s, currently
~~390 km/s. The total IMF strength increased to 11 nT, currently
around 9 nT. The Bz component has been mostly positive since
around 04 UT. A northern hemisphere coronal hole is likely to
elevate the solar wind speed during 18-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 21011111
Cocos Island 3 21-11110
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 5 22112212
Learmonth 4 21112112
Alice Springs 3 21002111
Norfolk Island 2 21001101
Culgoora 3 21011111
Gingin 2 21011101
Camden 3 21011121
Canberra 2 21001101
Launceston 3 21011111
Hobart 2 21011101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 21011000
Casey 7 33221121
Mawson 17 62223213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 23 3325 5433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region on 15-Apr and in the Antarctic. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected to prevail until the arrival of a coronal hole high
speed wind stream on 18-Apr, though some unsettled periods are
possible 16-17 Apr if IMF Bz turns southward for an extended
period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely on 16-Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
17 Apr 45 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significantly depressed MUFs were observed across the
Australian region on 15-Apr. Slightly enhanced MUFs observed
daytime at Niue Island. Sporadic-E observed Darwin 16-18 UT,
Cocos Island 23 UT. Spread-F observed in most locations for varying
periods during the latter half of the UT day. Moderate MUF depressions
are likely to persist on 16-Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 57900 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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