[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 14 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 15 09:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate
over the next few days. A weak shock was observed in the solar
wind at 14/0653 UT. Subsequently, the solar wind speed peaked
around 522 km/s, currently around 400 km/s. The total IMF strength
jumped from around 4 nT to around 10 nT, currently 7 nT. The
Bz component has been negative since around 09 UT, dipping to
-9 nT, currently around -3 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 20 22255432
Cocos Island 12 22233432
Darwin 15 22245322
Townsville 15 22245322
Learmonth 22 32255433
Alice Springs 17 22245422
Norfolk Island 18 22355321
Culgoora 18 33253333
Gingin 30 31256543
Camden 19 22355322
Canberra 14 11245322
Launceston 26 22356433
Hobart 20 12355422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Macquarie Island 32 22466433
Casey 18 23344433
Mawson 56 65343765
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 25 5343 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 15 Quiet to Active
16 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region on 14-Apr until 06 UT. After a weak solar wind shock,
geomagnetic conditions then became more active, with storm levels
reached at times during 09-18 UT. Thereafter conditions returned
to quiet levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely for
Australia on 15-Apr, with mostly quiet conditions 16-17 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed periods are likely on 15-Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
16 Apr 45 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some periods of moderately depressed MUFs were observed
across Australia and equatorial regions on 14-Apr. Enhanced MUFs
observed daytime at Niue Island. Sporadic-E observed Hobart 19-20
UT. Spread-F observed 11-18 UT in Hobart, 18-21 UT central and
12-15 UT in the north. Some moderate MUF depressions are likely
to persist on 15-Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 548 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 252000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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