[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 10 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 11 09:30:26 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 112/63 112/63
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
10 April, with few weak C-class flares all from Region 2529.
The most notable observation was a long-duration weak C-class
flare with peak intensity at 10/0934 UT. Region 2529 shows significant
threat of producing more C-class flares, with possible chance
of stronger M-class flares over the next two days (11-12 April).
We still are unable to view the LASCO coronagraph imagery data
to determine if any earth-directed CMEs had occurred during past
24 hours (10 April). Reports from other Space Weather Forecasting
centres indicate that no earth-directed CMEs were observed. The
solar wind speeds were near nominal levels, between 340 and 420
km/s, during the past 24 hours. The current solar wind speed
is near 400 km/s. The Bz component fluctuated between -5 and
+5 nT during the past 24 hours. Bt peaked to 10 nT at around
10/1300 UT, and thereafter showed a gradual declining trend.
The current IMF magnitude is below 5 nT. The outlook for 11 April
is for the solar winds to remain low, near the background levels.
However, on 12 April moderate enhancement in solar wind speeds
are expected due to a large, recurrent equatorial coronal hole
with regions which appear to be connected with a another Southern
Hemisphere Coronal, moves into a geoeffective location on the
solar disk. This coronal hole in the previous rotation caused
solar wind speeds of up to 550 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11221002
Cocos Island 2 01211001
Darwin 5 21221112
Townsville 6 21322112
Learmonth 2 11211001
Alice Springs 3 10221002
Norfolk Island 3 11211002
Gingin 2 01211001
Camden 5 11321112
Canberra 2 00210002
Launceston 6 12321003
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 00320001
Casey 5 23211002
Mawson 12 33332104
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1001 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 7 Quiet
12 Apr 17 Active
13 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions was at quiet levels over
the Australian region for the past 24 hours (10 April). The outlook
for UT day 11 April is for generally quiet geomagnetic conditions.
On UT day 12 April, the geomagnetic active could reach minor
storm levels towards the end of the UT day. This is due to the
anticipated arrival of corotating interaction region (CIR) and
subsequent high speed solar streams from a large, recurrent equatorial
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Apr Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
recover to mildly depressed levels today, 11 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 35 Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 25 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day 10 April
were significantly depressed over most Australian regions. HF
conditions are expected to recover to mildly depressed values
today, 11 April. However, another strong HF depression is expected
in few days, possibly starting on UT day 13 April due to the
forecasted minor storm conditions on the 12 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 32000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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