[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 4 09:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 3 Sep. There were few isolated B-class flares and only one
C-class flare (C1.7) observed during the past 24 hours. Most
of these flares were from Region 2407 that has already rotated
behind the west limb. No earth-directed CMEs were observed on
the SOHO LASCO coronagrams images for the UT day. The 2-day outlook
(4-5 Sep) is for very low solar activity with small chance of
C class flares. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind fluctuated
between 360 and 460 km/s, the current solar wind speed is 440
km/s. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -/+8 nT. At
the time of writing this report, IMF Bz has been below -8 nT
(southward) for the last two hours (03/2100 - 03/2300 UT). However,
the current solar wind speeds are at moderate levels, which are
unfavourable to cause any major geomagnetic disturbance. Bt ranged
from 5-15 nT in the past 24 hours. Expect solar winds to remain
at these moderate levels over the next two days as the effects
of a small positive polarity equatorial coronal hole (CH95) wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 12112222
Cocos Island 3 11111121
Darwin 5 12112222
Townsville 6 12122222
Learmonth 3 01111121
Alice Springs 5 02112222
Norfolk Island 3 02111112
Culgoora 5 12112222
Camden 5 12112222
Gingin 5 12111222
Canberra 2 01101111
Melbourne 4 02112212
Launceston 5 12112222
Hobart 3 02101212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 02113211
Casey 9 23321223
Mawson 17 44322334
Davis 11 23422213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 6 3101 1311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 16 Mostly unsettled and could reach minor storm
levels at times.
05 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels during
the last 24 hours (UT day 3 Sep). Conditions for the next 24
hours are expected to be mostly unsettled and at times could
reach to minor storm levels in the high latitude regions. IMF
Bz has been mostly southward, near -8 nT, for the last two hours
(03/2100 - 03/2300 UT). However, the current solar wind speeds
are at moderate levels, which are unfavourable to cause any major
geomagnetic disturbance. If the solar wind speeds elevate in
the coming 24 hours, active to minor storm conditions are possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Globally, conditions for HF radio wave propagation are
unusually depressed. The foF2 values over the Australian region
are generally 20%-40% below long term predicted monthly values.
Propagation conditions are expected to trend back towards monthly
predicted values during the 4 week period approaching September
equinox.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric conditions were observed across
all AUS/NZ regions during the last 24 hours (UT day 3 Sep). Mostly
similar ionospheric conditions are expected over the next 3 days.
There is some evidence that propagation conditions will trend
back towards the monthly predicted values latter during the week.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 48100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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