[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 3 09:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 2 Sep, with only few isolated B-class flares and no C-class
flares. No earth-directed CMEs were observed on the SOHO LASCO
coronagrams images for the UT day. The 2-day outlook (3-4 Sep)
is for very low solar activity with small chance of C class flares.
During the last 24 hours, the solar wind increased from 340 to
440 km/s, with an abrupt enhancement observed at ~ 2/1700 UT.
The current solar wind speed is 440 km/s. The Bz component of
IMF fluctuated between -/+6 nT and was below -5 nT (southward)
for at least an hour during the UT day. Bt ranged from 4-10 nT
in the past 24 hours. The enhancement in solar winds is due to
the arrival of high speed streams emanating from a small positive
polarity equatorial coronal hole, which is now at geoeffective
position on the solar disk. Expect solar wind for remain elevated
over the next two days as the effects of the coronal hole wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11101222
Cocos Island 5 11111322
Darwin 4 11101222
Townsville 5 21201222
Learmonth 5 11101322
Alice Springs 4 11101222
Norfolk Island 2 20101120
Culgoora 3 11101121
Camden 2 11101111
Gingin 5 21101232
Canberra 1 00100111
Melbourne 3 11101122
Launceston 4 11101222
Hobart 2 11101111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 10001000
Casey 13 35410121
Mawson 19 42211363
Davis 17 23221362
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
05 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels during
the last 24 hours (UT day 2 Sep). The two day outlook is geomagnetic
conditions will be mostly unsettled and at times could reach
to minor storm levels in the high latitude regions. The solar
wind has elevated over the last 24 hours indicating that the
Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR) associated with the small
positive polarity equatorial coronal hole has reached earth.
If the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
stays strongly southward for longer periods, minor geomagnetic
storm effects could be experienced at earth over the next two
days (3 and 4 Sep).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Globally, conditions for HF radio wave propagation are
unusually depressed. The foF2 values over the Australian region
are generally 20%-40% below long term predicted monthly values.
Propagation conditions are expected to trend back towards monthly
predicted values during the 4 week period approaching September
equinox.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 45 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
04 Sep 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
05 Sep 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 31 August
and is current for 1-3 Sep. Depressed ionospheric conditions
were observed across all AUS/NZ regions during the last 24 hours
(UT day 2 Sep). Similar ionospheric conditions are expected over
the next 3 days. These below predicted monthly HF conditions
are due to very low levels of solar ionising radiation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 55100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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