[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 29 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 30 10:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Very low
Flares: B class flare
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Very low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 29 Nov UT.
AR 2459 (N07E12) produced the largest flare of the day, a B6.3
event peaking at 07:37 UT. GONG H alpha telescopes recorded a
filament eruption from AR 2459 preceding the B6.3 flare. A weak
C class flare is possible today, 30 Nov. SOHO LASCO telescopes
recorded a bright CME expanding toward the SE during 28 Nov.
This CME is not Earthward directed. A faster halo CME was recorded
expanding toward the SE starting during 07 UT on 29 Nov. This
CME was composed of at least 2 ejections and may have been associated
with the filament eruption preceding the B6.3 flare. A component
of this halo CME is Earthward directed. The solar wind speed
increased from about 350 km/s to about 450 km/s during 29 Nov.
Coronal Hole 703 has rotated into a geoeffective location and
faster wind is expected to impact Earth during 01-02 Dec. The
magnitude of the IMF reached 15 nT during 29 Nov. The Bz component
was predominantly northward but is currently weakly southward.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 12222232
Cocos Island 5 11221122
Darwin 8 12221233
Townsville 8 12222233
Learmonth 8 12232232
Alice Springs 8 12222233
Norfolk Island 6 21221132
Gingin 8 22232222
Camden 7 12222232
Canberra 5 11212122
Launceston 8 12322123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 01143122
Casey 34 56633233
Mawson 26 33443264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1011 3133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 12 Unsettled
01 Dec 25 Active
02 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled throughout
the Australian region during 29 Nov UT. The planetary magnetic
index Kp reached 3 during 18-21 UT. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be unsettled today, 30 Nov. A minor geomagnetic storm
(Kp=5) is possible during 01-02 Dec due to the arrival of faster
wind emanating from CH 703. A glancing blow from a halo CME launched
during 29 Nov may cause active conditions during 02-03 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere during 29 Nov
UT. Conditions are expected to be similar today, 30 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 37
Nov 66
Dec 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Dec 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Dec 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region during 29 Nov UT.
The conditions were more depressed at high mid-latitude stations.
For example, the preliminary daily T index was 55 at Brisbane
and 27 at Hobart. Similar conditions are expected today, 30 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 61600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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